The latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) shows that despite a slowdown in production in major producing countries, the global tilapia market remains relatively stable. China and Egypt are facing supply stagnation caused by rising costs, while other producing countries such as Brazil are seizing this opportunity to expand their market share.
In the first half of 2023, global tilapia trade remained stable, but production in China, Egypt, and some Latin American countries was lower than expected. These countries are working hard to cope with high costs and demand fluctuations, resulting in a decrease in their export prices compared to 2022. At the same time, Tilapia producers in Southeast Asia and South Asia, such as Indonesia and Thailand, are increasing their supply, which has a positive impact on the industry.
Rabobank analyst Gorjan Nikolik predicted at the Global Seafood Alliance Seafood Summit that global tilapia production will reach 7 million tons by 2024. He emphasized that despite production slowdown in some key countries, the tilapia industry maintained a growth rate of 5.4% from 2010 to 2021.
The report points out that China remains the world’s largest supplier of tilapia, despite facing challenges such as typhoons, declining stocking rates, and rising feed costs. As the second largest producer, Indonesia mainly focuses on the domestic market, but plans to increase exports are underway. Egypt, as the largest producer in Africa and the third largest producer globally, plans to produce over 3 million tons by 2025, despite facing economic difficulties such as inflation and foreign exchange shortages.
Colombia is expected to see a 5% decrease in tilapia production this year due to the outbreak of the disease, leading to enhanced biosafety measures. In addition, China’s tilapia exports to the United States declined slightly, but its trade with C ô te d’Ivoire, Denmark, Türkiye and Malaysia increased significantly.
The US market is generally weak under inflationary pressure, with a year-on-year decrease in tilapia imports. In the first half of 2023, the United States imported a total of 86500 tons of tilapia, valued at 326 million US dollars. Compared with the same period last year, the quantity decreased by 7% and the value decreased by 15%. The import volume of frozen whole tilapia increased by 12% year-on-year.
Due to the outbreak of the disease, Brazil’s tilapia exports have also significantly decreased. However, exports of refrigerated tilapia fillets from Latin America remain strong, especially for the US and Japanese markets. Despite a decrease in quantity, Japan’s expenditure on high-quality tilapia has increased.
The report also pointed out that as summer enters, global tilapia prices have rebounded, despite a decline in the Chinese tilapia market in the second quarter of 2023. The price of a 300-500 gram live tilapia in Guangdong Province, China from April to June 2023 was 5.98 yuan (0.85 US dollars) per kilogram, a decrease of 8% from the first quarter and a year-on-year decrease of 26%. The import price of frozen fish fillets in the United States decreased by 21%, while the price of fresh fish fillets increased by 7% year-on-year in the second quarter. In Brazil, fresh fish fillets reached the highest average offshore price of $6.63/kg in the second quarter, even exceeding the $6.47/kg of frozen fish fillets.
Although the global tilapia industry is facing multiple factors such as increased costs, fluctuating market demand, and production challenges But overall, the industry outlook is still optimistic. Multiple countries and regions are actively adjusting their strategies to adapt to market changes and seek new development opportunities. It is expected that global tilapia production will increase by 2024, providing consumers with more high-quality choices.
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